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  Forecast Discussion for Southern Oregon and Northern California  

Forecast: Forecast Discussion | 7 Day Forecast

Forecast Discussion for MFR NWS Office

000
FXUS66 KMFR 010358
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
858 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY. THE NEXT
WEEK WILL BE NOTABLY WARM AND DRY WITH A PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WIDENING DIURNAL RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH MORNING LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR MANY OF THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXCEPT FOR LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
LABOR DAY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP WEST
SIDE HIGHS ON TUESDAY AROUND THE SAME READINGS FROM MONDAY WHILE
THERE ARE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING FOR THE EAST SIDE. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE...EXCEPT FOR
STRONGER NORTH WINDS AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE...
ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED TO VFR ALONG THE COAST, THEY
WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VIS HAVE BEEN REDUCED AT TIME SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FIRES. HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNS THE SMOKE IS
CHANGING DIRECTION AND IS NOW STARTING TO MOVE EAST AS EVIDENCED BY
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THEREFORE REDUCTION IN VIS DUE TO SMOKE
COULD AFFECT EASTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT SUN 31 AUG 2014...WINDS AT BUOY 27 HAVE
INCREASED THE LAST FEW HOURS AND COULD BRIEFLY HIT SMALL CRAFT FOR A
FEW HOURS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SEAS HAVE NOT COME UP AS MUCH
YET, BUT THEY WILL WITH SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS EXPECTED TO ONLY AFFECT
A SMALL PORTION OF PZZ376. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHENING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND WAVE
DOMINATED SEAS. WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST
SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE BASED
UPON TWO FEATURES. THE FIRST IS THE THERMAL TROUGH, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK, AND THE SECOND
WILL BE A LONG LIVED BUT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE APPEARS TO BE NO
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE BEST POSSIBLE, YET
STILL VERY SLIGHT, CHANCE ARRIVING LATE IN THE TERM. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

UNTIL THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES, THE THERMAL TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH
WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN, THEREBY CREATING A GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR WEST SIDE AND CASCADE RIDGE LINES, WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, AN ASSOCIATED WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT
AS IT REACHES THE SOUTH END OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. BUT OTHER THAN
PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT WILL ONLY ACT TO
INCREASE THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE THERMAL TOUGH TO THE
SOUTH AND THE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASED
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY AND VERY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, MODELS PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA TOWARDS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE FORECAST AREA CAN
THEREFORE EXPECT CONTINUING WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM. THERE MAY BE
SOME RELIEF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS MODELS ARE PRODUCING A STRONGER,
AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, WETTER SYSTEM ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH, SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


FIRE WEATHER...THE BRIEF TASTE OF MOISTURE THAT WE HAD THIS MORNING
IS FLYING AWAY QUICKLY AS SUBSIDENCE BLOWS IT FROM THE TIPS OF OUR
TONGUES. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE TONIGHT TO FURTHER DRY THINGS
OUT. ON TUESDAY THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND WITH INCREASED UP
VALLEY FLOW. THE MODELS INDICATE A HAINES OF 5 FOR TUESDAY...AND
PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT EXISTING FIRES IN THIS SITUATION
BEHAVE AS IF THERE WAS A HAINES OF 6. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
DISPUTE AS TO WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. WILL WAIT TO COORDINATE WITH THE FIRES IN THE CASCADES
ABOUT THIS BEFORE POSSIBLE WARNING ISSUANCE. DRYING..ESPECIALLY AT
THE RIDGE LEVEL...CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
850 MB DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO C...AND LOWER THAN -15 C OVER MUCH OF
THE WEST SIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE OFFSHORE FINALLY WEAKENS
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINS OFFSHORE ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND HAVE
KEPT RH`S LOW PRETTY MUCH TO THE COAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. -SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM
     MONDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11
     AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/JRS/MAP

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion