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  Forecast Discussion for Southern Oregon and Northern California  

Forecast: Forecast Discussion | 7 Day Forecast

Forecast Discussion for MFR NWS Office

000
FXUS66 KMFR 281107
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
407 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.CLIMATE...
A DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 72F WAS SET AT KLAMATH FALLS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 70F SET IN 1966. THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE WAS TIED AT MONTAGUE WITH 78F. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
18 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK BETWEEN 6PM AND 8:30PM PDT FRIDAY
EVENING. THESE OCCURRED ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST OF CRATER LAKE AND BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MILES NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF KLAMATH FALLS AND SPRAGUE RIVER. THESE STORMS WERE
ALSO LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS GUSTS AND BRIEF
RAINFALL OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CAME IN A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN EXPECTATIONS FOR A FEW AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COAST
RANGE WITH 0.25" TO 0.50". MOST LOCATIONS HAVE HAD STORM TOTALS IN
THE 0.10" TO 0.25" INCH RANGE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COAST
RANGE. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS THAT GOT RAINFALL RECEIVED A TRACE TO
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS DID FALL OVERNIGHT TO
NEAR 5000 FEET WITH A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE COAST RANGE, CASCADES, AND EAST SIDE, BUT WATER
AMOUNTS HAVE WANED TO A MERE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15F COOLER
TODAY THAN WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10F
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ANOTHER 5F FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN CHANGE LITTLE FOR MONDAY.

AFTER A MILD MONDAY A FAST MOVING AND VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT MOVED THROUGH IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS BOTH IN TERMS OF COOLING AND PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY, WE`RE EXPECTING HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE ABOUT 15F COOLER
THAN WILL BE OBSERVED ON MONDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
POWERED BY 500 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -22C TO -32C RANGE (LOWEST
NORTH) MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES PRETTY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET ON TUESDAY WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED.

THE GFS40 AND ECMWF ARE THEN WELL AGREED IN KEEPING US ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY STORM TRACK, WHICH MEANS
COOL, BREEZY, SHOWERY WEATHER FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A
RELATIVE BREAK IS EXPECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT IT
WILL FEEL MUCH AS IT SHOULD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR FRUIT GROWING AREAS LOOKS TO BE
GREATEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNINGS. THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT,
-2C TO -4C AT 5KFT MSL, IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING, BUT SOME
WIND AND CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS
COLD AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD. FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS CLOUDS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.  LOCAL MVFR
CIGS WILL REDEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT.  EAST OF THE CASCADES...LOCAL
MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT SATURDAY 28 MAR 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL AREA OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE SEBASTIAN. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD TUESDAY... THEN A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT
  SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/15

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion