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  Forecast Discussion for Southern Oregon and Northern California  

Forecast: Forecast Discussion | 7 Day Forecast

Forecast Discussion for MFR NWS Office

000
FXUS66 KMFR 220402
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN
INTO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT. THEN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MOST THE AREA WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT
AS IT PUSHES INLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT
RAIN IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND TO
THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UMPQUA. THEN EXPECT RAIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CASCADES THEN STALLS
OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE AROUND 3
TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
INLAND, WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 0.5
TO 2 INCHES, WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
UMPQUA VALLEY. EAST OF THE CASCADES, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE LESS, AROUND 0.10 TO 0.75 INCHES, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER MODOC AND
EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES.


WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. OVER THE INLAND AREAS, STRONGEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS, INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
NEAR SUMMER LAKE. WIND ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.


ON THURSDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS DUE TO THE STALLED FRONT. PRECIPITATION
RATES WILL DECREASE WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...22/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS EVENING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHARPLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOTH WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAK. THE LLWS RISK BEGINS AROUND 03Z AND
EXTENDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WILL LOWER FROM VFR THIS EVENING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COAST RANGES. RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE
ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES THERE BY SUNRISE.
INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION. STEADIER RAIN PROBABLY WON`T BEGIN
THOUGH UNTIL LATER IN AFTERNOON AT KRBG OR THE EVENING AT KMFR.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE EAST SIDE. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE WATERS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS EVENING REACHING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVY WEST SWELL
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WIND WAVES RESULTING IN CHAOTIC AND
DANGEROUS SEAS. EXPECT WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE A LITTLE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WESTERLY SWELL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE YET
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SPILDE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUIET TONIGHT AS WE ARE
IN BETWEEN TWO STORMS. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS SPREADING INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. BASED ON REDDING TO MEDFORD GRADIENT BETWEEN 4-5 MB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..I HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. IN ADDITION
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 700MB IS AROUND 50KTS AND HAVE ALSO ADDED THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA OF HIGHWAY 31 IN THE WIND ADVISORY TOMORROW
EVENING. ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY
BUT THE GRADIENTS DONT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY
HERE IN MEDFORD. THIS FRONT HAS TAPPED INTO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..THE CURRY COUNTY COAST COULD SEE 3-4
INCHES OF RAIN. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE FRONT AND MOST OF THE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INLAND. /FB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion