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  Forecast Discussion for Southern Oregon and Northern California  

Forecast: Forecast Discussion | 7 Day Forecast

Forecast Discussion for MFR NWS Office

000
FXUS66 KMFR 121654
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
854 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE COAST THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
OVERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. ALSO SATELLITE
ESTIMATES OF THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OFFSHORE INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
VALUES THAN THE MODEL FORECASTS. SO HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES TODAY. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE IN JACKSON AND
EASTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTIES.

BEHIND THIS FRONT, EXPECT DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. THEN
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY.
ONSHORE MOIST FLOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AND
EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON. AREAS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE WARM FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY BUT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING CONTINUED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL
DEGRADE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. A MIX
OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE CASCADES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
CONDITIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD DEGRADE TO
MVFR...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 0830 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016...HEAVY WEST SWELL
WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AT LEAST. OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY AND REMAIN INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO ARRIVE WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  -BPN/SK


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT
TERM MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT MEDFORD WILL SEE MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NW LAKE
COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN SPREAD RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A MUCH LESS RAINFALL
AMOUNT THAN BEFORE AND WE HAVE TRENDED THE QPF FORECAST DOWNWARD.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES ALTHOUGH CRATER LAKE
MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND IN THE CASCADES
BUT THE TREND IS FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND FORECASTS TOWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT AND SHOWED MUCH LESS WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT VERY HIGH ON HOW STRONG WINDS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /FB

AVIATION...FOR THE 12/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
SPREAD TOWARD THE CASCADES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CONDITIONS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD DEGRADE TO
MVFR...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SK

MARINE...UPDATED 0330 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016...HIGH WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE MORNING...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE NORTHERN TWO ZONES AT LEAST. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY AND REMAIN INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ARRIVE WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion