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  Forecast Discussion for Southern Oregon and Northern California  

Forecast: Forecast Discussion | 7 Day Forecast

Forecast Discussion for MFR NWS Office

000
FXUS66 KMFR 251000
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
300 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THIS
MORNING, AND THUS THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY OVER
MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY. STRATUS HAS MOVED ONTO MOST OF THE COAST
AND IS BEGINNING TO BANK UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE
CASCADE CREST. GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH THE MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN BURN BACK TO THE
COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH
WILL BRING A LITTLE COOLING ALOFT AND RESULT IN A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE AND CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR
AGAIN ON TUESDAY, BUT WITH A BIT LESS INSTABILITY ON THE EAST
SIDE.

AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE INLAND LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
RELATIVELY HOT WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE SUPPRESSED. BUT WHEN THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WE GET INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST, MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS LIFTING AND CLEARING TO VFR BETWEEN 17Z-
19Z. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS.  THEN AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. INLAND...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE COAST INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY, MAINLY NEAR GRANTS PASS, LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING TO VFR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY MAY OBSCURE SOME HIGHER TERRAIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 PM PDT SUNDAY 24 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR CAPE BLANCO SOUTH. HOWEVER STEEP SEAS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, EXPECT AREAS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion