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  Forecast Discussion for Southern Oregon and Northern California  

Forecast: Forecast Discussion | 7 Day Forecast

Forecast Discussion for MFR NWS Office

467
FXUS66 KMFR 280808
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
108 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...Few changes were made the forecast this morning. In
fact, the theme of the weather this week is the same: few changes.
The models remain in general agreement in an upper ridge remaining
centered over the Rockies through the week, and this leaves us in
rather benign southwest flow aloft which gradually veers to
westerly. There will be weak shortwaves within the flow, and with
typical summer time heat at the surface, instability will be
present over the mountains each day. However, the lack of moisture
will be a significant limiting factor for any convection, so while
we will probably see cumulus buildups over the mountains each
afternoon, it will be hard to get any showers or storms going. I
removed thunderstorms from the forecast for this afternoon due to
the lack of moisture.

We may see some later in the week depending on how the moisture
evolves, and I left in the storms we have beyond today. I don`t
think it will be as hot as it was over the weekend, but
temperatures will remain around 5 degrees above normal through the
week.

By next weekend, the Rockies ridge begins to weaken and a weak
upper trough comes into our area from the west. I wouldn`t expect
to see any precipitation with the trough, but it should result in
more onshore flow and slightly cooler weather. -Wright

&&

.AVIATION...For the 28/06Z TAF cycle...VFR conditions will prevail
at most locations through the TAF period. The exception will be
along the coast north of Cape Blanco and offshore, where areas of IFR
to MVFR ceilings will persist. Model guidance has backed off a bit
on the extent of the marine layer inland overnight into Tuesday
morning. Even so, could see some MVFR ceilings to about
Roseburg by morning and also perhaps along the Umpqua Divide. Some
stratus and fog will also fill in overnight from Brookings to just
north of Gold Beach. Most areas will clear Tuesday afternoon, except
Coos County where stratus will persist most of the day. Gusty winds
will develop again along the coast Tuesday afternoon and evening with
more typical summer breezes inland. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 250 PM PDT Mon 27 June 2016...High pressure
offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will continue to
bring north winds and steep seas. Winds will strengthen slightly
south of Cape Blanco this afternoon and evening. By Tuesday
afternoon and continuing through at least Thursday evening gales
are expected for much of the area south of Port Orford along with
very steep seas. The models show north gales over the Southern
Coastal Waters possibly in to about 5 NM in the inner waters south
of Gold Beach. The gales should last through Thursday night. -Sven

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday
     for PZZ356-376.
     Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday for
     PZZ356-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM PDT this
     morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday
     for PZZ350-370.

$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion